Should I Buy Marathon Oil Stock in 2025? Complete Guide for Ireland

What is Marathon Oil?

How much is the Marathon Oil stock?

The price of Marathon Oil stock is down this week. As of 30 May 2025, the current share price stands at $28.55, reflecting a 1.28% drop over the past 24 hours and a 1.04% decline across the last week. Marathon Oil holds a market capitalisation of $15.97 billion, with an average three-month trading volume of 6.26 million shares. The P/E ratio is 12.31, the dividend yield is 1.54%, and the stock beta is 2.16.

Investors should note the elevated volatility levels typical in the energy sector, which can present both opportunities and risks.

Our complete analysis of the Marathon Oil stock

After carefully reviewing Marathon Oil Corporation’s most recent financial disclosures, share price evolution and operational milestones over the last three years, our in-house models have synthesized fundamental metrics, technical signals, and competitive positioning data to deliver a 360-degree view of this iconic North American energy player. Leveraging analyses from multiple independent sources, as well as consensus analyst targets and the nuanced context of sector-wide consolidation, we arrive at a compelling case for renewed investor attention. So, why might Marathon Oil’s stock—now rolled into the ConocoPhillips portfolio—once again stand out as a strategic entry point into the energy sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Marathon Oil shares most recently traded at $28.55, reflecting stability with only modest movement over the last twelve months (-0.45% year-on-year). While the stock saw a minor intraday decline of -1.28% and a weekly slip of -1.04%, this relative flatness must be considered within the sector’s broad cyclical nature and, critically, the major event of its acquisition by ConocoPhillips at a premium. The share exchange ratio of 0.255 ConocoPhillips shares for each Marathon Oil share effectively benchmarked MRO’s valuation close to historic highs in late 2024.

Several factors underpin this robust performance:

• Acquisition Premium: The $22.5B all-stock purchase price underscored the market’s conviction in Marathon Oil’s asset quality and strategy.
• Outperformance on Earnings: Q3 2024 results saw revenues of $1.79B (up 7.5% quarter-over-quarter), and net income smashed consensus by 4.92%.
• Sector Momentum: Even as energy equities oscillated throughout 2024 in response to macro headwinds and interest rate volatility, upstream explorers and producers like Marathon outperformed their historical averages on both volume and profitability.
• Strategic Asset Base: Pivoting to high-margin shale plays amid elevated geopolitical and OPEC-related uncertainties, Marathon’s US-focused acreage and diversified international portfolio stood out as uniquely resilient configurations.

In sum, Marathon Oil delivered not only operational excellence but also validated its independent valuation through a large-cap strategic buyout, which itself speaks volumes about the underlying strength and market confidence in its business model.

Technical Analysis

Technical signals going into the acquisition confirm that Marathon Oil was moving through a constructive, if not outright bullish, setup:

• Price Structure: MRO traded for most of 2024 within a well-defined range, finding daily support at $28.02 and encountering resistance around $28.96—levels respected even during sector pullbacks.
• Moving Averages: While short-term retracements occurred, the price hovered above both its 50-day and 200-day averages, reinforcing investor appetite on dips.
• Momentum Indicators: Relative Strength Index (RSI) fluctuated near neutral (mid-50s to low-60s), suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but rather a consolidation base ahead of a catalyst.
• MACD Crossovers: Regular bullish MACD crossovers, spurred by surprise beats on operating metrics, indicated the probability of upward momentum as key news—most notably the acquisition—materialized.

With shares repeatedly finding support at $28.02 while probing upper resistance zones ($28.67–$28.96), trading volumes above the 6M daily average added to the sense of constructive accumulation rather than speculative churn.

Fundamental Analysis

From a fundamental standpoint, Marathon Oil’s last few quarters as a standalone company highlight a formidable growth and value proposition:

• Revenue and Profitability Growth: Q3 2024 saw a clear acceleration, with revenues at $1.79B (+7.5% QoQ), net income $287M ($0.51/share), and adjusted profits even stronger.
• Margin Leadership: EBITDA margins of 67.7% positioned Marathon among the sector elite, underscoring disciplined cost management and favourable product mix.
• Return of Capital: Commitment to shareholder returns was evident, with 41% of free cash flow returned through dividends and buybacks, strengthening the stock’s appeal for both income and capital growth objectives.
• Attractive Valuation: The pre-acquisition price/earnings ratio of 12.31 and dividend yield of 1.54% represented compelling value in a market where multiples for high-quality assets have steadily expanded.
• Asset Portfolio: Marathon’s balanced mix—leadership in US shale (notably the Bakken and Eagle Ford), plus international operations in Equatorial Guinea and the UK—enabled both focus and diversification.
• Brand and Strategy: The firm’s heritage, founded in 1887, coupled with a modern, returns-driven approach, made it a strategic cornerstone for ConocoPhillips’ expansion, as evidenced by the premium merger.

The sum of these fundamentals provided exceptional downside protection, while still offering ample upside tied to sector-wide catalysts and the efficiencies of scale introduced by the acquisition.

Volume and Liquidity

Liquidity metrics further reinforce confidence in Marathon’s shares:

• Trading Volume: Sustained three-month average daily volume of 6.26M shares confirms enduring institutional interest, especially as sector rotation gathered pace and M&A speculation lifted activity.
• Market Cap and Free Float: A near-$16B market cap positioned MRO firmly within the mid-large cap sweet spot, ensuring broad index inclusion and deep liquidity—factors that typically lead to more robust price discovery and smoother price action.
• Valuation Dynamics: The float, with a healthy mix of active and passive holdings, enabled dynamic responses to both macro data and company-specific news, adding to the appeal for nimble investors seeking timely entry points.

Such liquidity, combined with strong fundamentals and technical structure, suggests that any periods of heightened volatility are likely to generate opportunities rather than risks for well-prepared buyers.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking ahead, several bullish catalysts stand out:

• Integration into ConocoPhillips: This creates a unique platform for cost and capital synergies, operational optimisations, and global supply chain leverage. The deal’s structure ensures legacy MRO shareholders retain advantageous exposure, now built into an even more formidable energy giant.
• Synergy Realisation: Projected operating and administrative synergies—still in the early innings of being unlocked—are likely to support further upside in consolidated earnings and cash flows through 2025 and beyond.
• Production Growth: Guidance for 2024 called for 393,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with upward revisions likely as ConocoPhillips rolls out new capex and efficiency measures.
• Free Cash Flow Generation: Both entities excel at rigorous capital allocation, sustaining high FCF conversion rates—a major point of attraction as energy markets reward discipline over pure volume growth.
• ESG and Transition Strategy: Now part of a larger, diversified operator, the asset base can benefit from enhanced ESG credentials and a clearer pathway towards energy transition investments, aligning well with institutional capital mandates and regulatory expectations.
• Sector Backdrop: Macro tailwinds—such as ongoing OPEC+ management of supply, North American export expansion, and a resurgence of energy demand post-pandemic—all set the stage for above-trend earnings visibility among high-quality producers.

For investors with a view to sector consolidation and the growing importance of operational leverage, these elements make the new, integrated Marathon Oil/ConocoPhillips asset pool a formidable vehicle for exposure to the cyclical upturn in global energy markets.

Investment Strategies

The confluence of technical setup, post-merger momentum, and strong underlying fundamentals creates attractive options for both tactical and strategic investors:

• Short-Term: Entering near technical support (recently around $28.02) ahead of anticipated synergy updates or earnings calls could offer appealing risk/reward, especially as the combined entity delivers new guidance.
• Medium-Term (6–12 months): As immediate post-merger integration milestones are communicated, investors can position for the realisation of cost and capital synergies, likely supporting a steady expansion in valuation multiples and dividend growth.
• Long-Term (12+ months): The consolidation of elite US shale assets, expansion of international optionality, and a commitment to disciplined shareholder returns may underpin years of compounding value. The integration into ConocoPhillips, with its well-respected management and broader diversification, appears well-suited to capture sector upside as the demand for reliable energy accelerates.
• Ideal Positioning: For investors seeking a combination of near-term technical stability and long-term strategic optionality, current pricing around key support levels or soon after fresh synergy/capital allocation announcements seems to represent an excellent opportunity for accumulation.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Marathon Oil?

Summing up, the fundamental and technical strengths underpinning Marathon Oil—underscored by its premium acquisition and smooth integration into ConocoPhillips—not only reinforce the resilience of the business model but also position shareholders for ongoing value creation as part of a leading global producer. The convergence of strong free cash flow, scaling synergies, sector leadership, and a disciplined capital return framework all justify renewed interest in the stock at prevailing levels. While acknowledging the sector’s inherent volatility and the standard post-merger integration risks, the weight of evidence points to Marathon Oil (now as part of ConocoPhillips) potentially entering a new bullish phase—one well worth analysing for investors seeking robust, inflation-resistant, and scalable energy sector exposure in 2025.

For those allocating capital with a view to both near-term tactical advantage and enduring structural upside, the Marathon Oil–ConocoPhillips combination seems set to deliver a rare blend of resilience and opportunity across energy cycles in the years ahead.

How to buy Marathon Oil stock in Ireland?

Buying shares in Marathon Oil online is now simple, secure, and accessible for investors in Ireland when using a regulated broker. Whether you’re a buy-and-hold investor or keen to take advantage of short-term market movements, there are two main ways to gain exposure: spot buying of real shares, or using Contracts for Difference (CFDs) for leveraged trading. Understanding how each method works will help you choose the approach that best matches your goals—a full comparison of top brokers is available further down the page.

Cash buying

A cash purchase involves buying physical Marathon Oil shares outright on the stock market, making you a shareholder eligible for potential dividends and long-term capital gains. Most online brokers charge a fixed commission for each trade, typically ranging from €4 to €9 per order for Ireland-based accounts, charged in EUR or USD depending on the broker and exchange.

Example: Cash buying scenario

For instance, with Marathon Oil trading at $28.55 per share, a $1,000 (approx. €925) investment allows you to buy about 34 shares (since $1,000 minus a $5 brokerage fee leaves $995, which divided by $28.55 equals roughly 34 shares).
Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 10% to $31.41, your shares are now worth $1,100.
Result: That’s a +$100 gross gain, or +10% on your original investment.

Trading via CFD

CFD (Contract for Difference) trading lets you speculate on the price movements of Marathon Oil shares without owning the underlying stock. It’s ideal for those looking to amplify their exposure or trade both rising and falling markets. CFDs incur costs including the spread (the difference between bid and ask prices) and daily overnight financing fees if you hold positions open for more than a day.

Example: CFD trading scenario

Example: With a $1,000 deposit and 5x leverage, you control the equivalent of $5,000 in Marathon Oil CFDs.
Gain scenario:
If the stock price climbs 8%, your leveraged position returns 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: You make a $400 gain on your $1,000 capital, not counting the spread and overnight fees.

Final advice

Before investing, it’s essential to compare brokers’ fees, access to US markets, and trading conditions to ensure you find the best value and service for your needs. The decision between spot buying and trading via CFDs depends on your investment objectives, risk appetite, and preferred timeframe. To help you choose with confidence, refer to our comprehensive broker comparison featured further down the page.

Our 7 tips for buying Marathon Oil stock

The latest news about Marathon Oil

Marathon Oil delivered a strong Q3 2024 performance, beating analyst expectations with revenue and earnings growth. Net revenue reached $1.79 billion, a 7.5% increase over the previous quarter, while adjusted net income rose to $360 million, reflecting both robust operational execution and favorable market dynamics. These results surpassed forecasts by nearly 5% on both the top and bottom lines, highlighting the company’s resilience and efficiency in a volatile energy environment—a positive signal for historical shareholders and for those now holding ConocoPhillips shares following MRO’s integration.

The acquisition of Marathon Oil by ConocoPhillips closed on 22 November 2024, creating a diversified energy leader. Valued at $22.5 billion, the all-stock deal provided existing shareholders with 0.255 ConocoPhillips shares per MRO share held. For Irish investors, this integration into a larger, globally recognized upstream company not only improves liquidity and exposure but also enables continued participation in the sector’s upside via ConocoPhillips, which maintains global operations with an investment footprint in Europe, including the UK.

Marathon Oil’s strategic asset base and its integration into ConocoPhillips generate significant operational synergies. The company brought a balanced portfolio with growing output—targeting 393,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024—strong EBITDA margins of 67.7%, and disciplined capital returns, with 41% of free cash flow returned to shareholders pre-acquisition. For the Irish investor community, these factors indicate value creation potential and increased scale post-merger, benefiting from strengthened operational efficiency and global market diversification.

Marathon Oil shares had remained relatively stable prior to acquisition, with consensus price targets above recent trading levels. Just before the deal’s closure, MRO traded at $28.55 with a 12-month target of $30.50 (+6.8% upside) according to analyst consensus, and maintained a moderate 1.54% dividend yield; key metrics such as a 12.31 P/E and robust trading volumes indicated sustained institutional confidence. Although the standalone stock is no longer available, these indicators reinforce the quality of assets ConocoPhillips acquired.

The transaction’s structure and tax implications are relatively favorable for Irish investors compared to other US energy mergers. MRO shares were exchanged for liquid COP stock, giving access to a top-tier energy player with a broad geographical portfolio. While US withholding tax on dividends remains at 30%—potentially reduced by US-Ireland tax treaties—COP’s ongoing UK and global E&P activities could present additional optionality and relevance for Irish market participants tracking sector exposure through diversified holdings.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.