Should I buy Carnival stock in 2025? A Complete Guide for Irish Investors

What is Carnival?

How much is the Carnival stock?

The price of Carnival stock is rising this week. As of now, Carnival trades at $23.16, up 0.70% ($0.16) in the past 24 hours, though showing a weekly decline of 4.09%. The company holds a market capitalisation of $31.38 billion, with an average three-month volume of 26.25 million shares. Carnival's P/E ratio stands at 14.94, there is currently no dividend yield, and its beta is 2.51, indicating above-average volatility.

Given its high beta and recent strong annual performance, investors should be aware that Carnival’s share price can move quickly, offering both risk and opportunity in a dynamic market environment.

Our full analysis of the Carnival stock

Carnival Corporation has attracted renewed market interest following its latest quarterly results and an in-depth review of its share performance over the past three years. Leveraging proprietary algorithms that synthesise advanced financial indicators, technical analysis, sector trends, and competitor benchmarking, we gain a comprehensive perspective on this iconic stock. So, why might Carnival be poised to reclaim its status as a strategic entry point into the global travel and leisure sector in 2025?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Carnival’s share price, currently at $23.16 (as of 30 May 2025), has delivered a robust +52.17% performance year-on-year, despite recent consolidation. The last month saw a correction of -18.34%, a move largely attributed to macro profit-taking following a strong multiquarter rally and sector-wide rotations. Notably, the stock continues to trade within its 52-week range of $13.78 to $28.72, indicating considerable upward room relative to both recent lows and the all-time high.

Key positive recent events include:

• Record first-quarter 2025 results: Revenue soared to an all-time high of $5.8 billion, up $400 million from Q1 2024.
• Operational excellence: Operating profit reached $543 million, nearly double the previous year, with net adjusted profit at $174 million—significantly surpassing analyst expectations.
• Strategic refinancing: A $5.5 billion debt refinancing secured $145 million in annual interest savings, reduced average interest rates to 4.6%, and garnered a positive rating outlook from Moody’s—strengthening both financial resilience and investor sentiment.
• Guidance upgrades: The management raised its 2025 net adjusted result and EBITDA targets, projecting ~30% and ~10% growth over 2024, respectively.

From a broader lens, Carnival benefits from a strengthening travel and hospitality sector amid record global cruise demand, resilient US consumer spending, and a steady recovery in discretionary leisure spending—a particularly relevant backdrop for IE and European investors who value cyclical growth exposure.

Technical Analysis

Technical readings for Carnival remain fundamentally constructive for buyers seeking an appealing entry:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 63.20, the RSI signals a neutral-to-positive stance, avoiding near-term overbought conditions while underpinning the stock’s recovery potential.
• MACD: While the MACD sits at 0.98 with a mild short-term sell impulse, this largely mirrors recent profit-taking and does not negate the multi-month bullish structure.
• Moving averages: Price action remains above all major moving averages—5-day ($22.89), 20-day ($21.72), 50-day ($20.02), and 200-day ($21.63)—with each still signalling upward momentum.
• Key levels: The immediate support (daily low) at $22.92 demonstrates strong buyer presence, and resistance at $28.72 (52-week high) offers a clear technical target.
• Consensus price target: Analysts see further upside, with a consensus target at $27.73—a ~20% premium to the current price point.

The technical profile, therefore, illustrates a compelling risk/reward scenario: Carnival appears to be consolidating above firm support, with the potential to pivot into the next bullish phase as investor confidence returns.

Fundamental Analysis

From a fundamentals perspective, Carnival’s investment case is notably strengthened by accelerating earnings power, efficient capital management, and global market leadership. Key pillars include:

• Sustained revenue growth: The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of $5.8 billion, up over 7% year over year, powered by robust booking demand and pricing strength.
• Profit and cash flow surge: Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.2 billion (+38% year-on-year), leading to one of the highest margin expansions since pre-pandemic times. Net profit, operating income, and return on invested capital (ROIC) all exceeded long-term averages.
• Valuation: Carnival trades at a trailing P/E of 14.94, competitive against global leisure titans and modest when set against the group’s double-digit earnings growth profile and sector peers, both US and European listed. The price/sales metric, given the enlarged top line, indicates further room for rerating.
• Strategic investments: Ongoing disciplined expansion—including two new AIDA ships, a pipeline of eight vessels through 2033, and brand partnerships like Holland America with The HISTORY Channel—drive differentiation and sustained growth.
• Brand and market share: Carnival commands the world’s largest cruise fleet (>90 ships) and a multi-brand portfolio, attracting over 14 million passengers in 2024.

Fundamental strengths are further confirmed by Carnival’s rapid progress on management's “SEA Change” transformation—achieving its 2026 ROIC target of ~12% a full year ahead of plan.

Volume and Liquidity

Carnival’s liquidity profile stands as a testament to sustained investor confidence:

• Average three-month daily turnover: 26.25 million shares, reflecting high active interest and ease of execution for both institutional and retail participants.
• Share float: With 1.17 billion shares outstanding, the float supports dynamic price discovery, ensuring an efficient market and tight bid-ask spreads.
• Market capitalisation: At $31.38 billion, Carnival’s scale offers ample index inclusion and trading fluidity.

Strong and consistent trading volume reinforces the view that Carnival’s recent movements reflect true market conviction, facilitating strategic entry and exit points for active investors.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Looking forward, Carnival is poised to capitalise on several high-impact positive catalysts:

• Record bookings and pricing: Forward bookings for 2026 and beyond are at record highs, locked in at the most attractive prices in company history—with the forward booking curve at its most extended ever.
• Fleet innovation: The integration of two new ultra-efficient ships for AIDA Cruises and a disciplined capacity increase (0.8% in 2025) signal a balance of innovation and profitability.
• Private destinations and upsell: Enhancements such as Celebration Key, an exclusive private destination, and premium brand tie-ups, such as with The HISTORY Channel, bolster both margin and customer loyalty.
• Alaska expansion: The $70 million Denali Lodge upgrade expands presence in high-value regions.
• ESG and sustainability: Industry-leading operational efficiency, environmental initiatives, and a marked improvement in ESG ratings are increasingly attracting long-term capital, particularly among European and institutional investors.
• Sector backdrop: Broader trends, including travel rebound, robust consumer sentiment, and abating inflation, underpin Carnival’s ability to command pricing power and outperform less-scaled competitors.
• Analyst upgrades: HSBC’s recent 71% target upgrade and broad coverage from 28 analysts reinforce a confident outlook.

Collectively, these factors point to a business model that is not only rebounding, but evolving—underscoring Carnival’s distinct potential to revisit or surpass historical valuation metrics.

Investment Strategies

Given the current context, a variety of entry and positioning strategies deserve attention:

• Short-term: The stock trades just above robust support at $22.92 following a healthy retracement, potentially offering agile traders an attractive entry with a clearly defined risk parameter. The imminent Q2 earnings release may act as a further catalyst for an upward technical break.
• Medium-term: For investors anticipating continued revenue acceleration and successful execution of capacity growth, a medium-horizon approach targets the $27.73 consensus price objective and possibly the $28.72 resistance, especially on positive sector or macro surprises.
• Long-term: Carnival’s structural turnaround, cost optimisation, and secular industry leadership position the stock as particularly appealing for long-term portfolios, including those seeking cyclical growth and dollar-hedged exposure. The expected reinstatement of dividends and further deleveraging could provide additional upside levers.

Positioning at current levels allows for potential upside participation ahead of anticipated catalysts, while recent sector volatility offers disciplined investors attractive risk/reward asymmetry.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Carnival?

Carnival’s compelling mix of record operational results, proactive financial management, robust liquidity, and strong secular tailwinds collectively underpin its renewed investment appeal. The technical structure following a measured pullback presents a window for entry, with momentum indicators beginning to signal a transition from consolidation to advance. Elevated forward bookings, guided profit growth, strategic expansion, and deep brand equity combine to justify renewed interest at current price levels.

For investors seeking diversified exposure to global leisure and travel, Carnival seems to represent an excellent opportunity poised at the intersection of cyclical recovery and long-term structural growth. The convergence of fundamental momentum, technical support, and advancing analyst confidence suggests that Carnival stock may be on the verge of a new bullish phase—making now a moment to consider a proactive allocation ahead of 2025’s sector inflection.

Carnival’s trajectory embodies the balance of resilience and upside optionality that discerning investors look for, with its unique combination of scale, strategy, and market momentum firmly supporting a confident outlook in the coming quarters.

How to buy Carnival stock in Ireland?

Buying shares of Carnival online as an investor in Ireland is both straightforward and safe when you use a regulated broker. Today, you can choose between classic “spot” share purchases—meaning direct ownership of Carnival shares—or trading Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allow you to speculate on price movements with or without owning the underlying stock. Each method carries its own benefits and risks, letting you tailor your exposure to match your investment goals. To help you make an informed decision, we’ve provided a detailed broker comparison further down this page.

Cash buying

A cash purchase of Carnival stock means you’re buying actual shares—becoming a part-owner of the company—with your capital. Irish online brokers usually charge a fixed commission per order, often from €4 to €10 per trade (or around $5 in USD if using a US-based broker platform).

Example

If Carnival share price is $23.16, with a $1,000 investment, you can buy approximately 43 Carnival shares (factoring in a $5 brokerage fee).

• ✔️ Gain scenario: If the share price rises 10% to $25.48, your shares are now worth approximately $1,100.
• Result: +$100 gross gain, representing +10% on your original investment.

This method is ideal for long-term investors looking to build direct positions in quality companies.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading lets you speculate on Carnival stock price movements without owning the underlying shares. Instead, you enter a contract with a broker to exchange the difference in Carnival’s price from entry to exit. CFD brokers typically charge a spread (the difference between buy and sell price), and overnight financing fees if you hold positions beyond a day.

Example

You open a CFD position on Carnival shares with $1,000 at 5x leverage. This gives you exposure to $5,000 worth of shares.

• ✔️ Gain scenario: If Carnival stock price rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
• Result: +$400 gain on your $1,000 margin (before fees).

CFDs can amplify gains (and losses) but are often more suited to experienced investors comfortable managing short-term risks and leverage.

Final advice

It's essential to compare brokers’ fees, account conditions, and trading platforms before making your investment—costs and features can vary widely. Whether you opt for direct share ownership or more dynamic CFD trading ultimately depends on your financial objectives and risk tolerance. You’ll find an updated broker comparison further down this page to help you select the best platform for your needs.

Our 7 tips for buying Carnival stock

The latest news about the Carnival

Carnival posts record Q1 2025 results, significantly exceeding revenue and earnings guidance. Carnival Corporation announced a record revenue of $5.8 billion for the first quarter of 2025, up $400 million year-over-year, accompanied by record operating and adjusted EBITDA results. Net adjusted income reached $174 million, translating into $0.13 per share, as the company exceeded both its own guidance and market expectations by a notable margin. Of particular relevance to Irish investors, Carnival’s brands such as P&O Cruises and Cunard maintain a visible presence in Ireland and the UK, suggesting potential for ongoing local economic impact given the company's robust demand recovery and industry leadership.

Guidance for full-year 2025 is raised, with long-term targets achieved in advance and resilient demand reported. Carnival has upgraded its adjusted net income and EBITDA guidance for 2025, targeting approximately $6.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA—a 10% increase over 2024—and forecasting over 30% growth in net adjusted income. Forward booking curves remain at record distances with 2026+ reservations at historic highs and volumes being secured at premium pricing. This extended booking visibility supports operational planning for brands with regional presence, benefiting Irish travel agencies, suppliers, and passengers seeking cruise options in the coming years.

The company executes a strategic $5.5 billion debt refinancing, lowering average interest rate and improving credit outlook. In early 2025, Carnival completed a major $5.5 billion debt refinancing, leading to $145 million in annualized interest savings and reducing its average interest rate to 4.6%. Moody’s responded by upgrading Carnival’s credit rating and assigning a positive outlook. A strengthened balance sheet and improved credit profile support the company’s ability to reinvest and expand, with potential downstream effects for the Irish market via enhanced fleet offerings and stability for customers booking through Irish channels.

The analyst consensus price target rises and technicals remain positive, with HSBC recently upgrading Carnival’s outlook. The average analyst price target now stands at $27.73—a 20% premium to the current price—with recent upgrades from global institutions, notably HSBC, which has raised its target by 71%. Technical signals are broadly positive: the stock trades above major moving averages (5, 20, 50, and 200 days) and maintains a high one-year return of over 50%. This momentum and positive sentiment, alongside robust Irish trading volumes in international portfolios, present a constructive view for Irish investors seeking exposure to travel and tourism equities.

Fleet expansion and strategic initiatives, including investments in premium products, strengthen Carnival’s market leadership and regional potential. Carnival has announced the order of two new AIDA ships, part of its disciplined fleet expansion plan—with eight vessels set for delivery through 2033. Strategic initiatives such as developing new destinations like Celebration Key and enhancing product offerings, including partnerships with The HISTORY Channel and expanded Alaska operations, signal Carnival’s commitment to differentiated customer experiences. Given the Irish market’s strong cruise demand post-pandemic and Carnival's role as the world's largest cruise operator, these developments may underpin increased cruise capacity and tailored itineraries accessible from Ireland and the UK, amplifying long-term growth prospects.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.