Should I buy Marathon Petroleum stock in 2025? Essential Guide for Irish Investors

What is Marathon Petroleum?

How much is the Marathon Petroleum stock?

The price of Marathon Petroleum stock is rising this week. As of now, the stock trades at $159.92 USD, showing a 0.83% gain over the past 24 hours and a 2.05% increase for the week.

Marathon Petroleum's stock beta of 0.84 indicates lower-than-average market volatility. This profile may appeal to investors in Ireland seeking stable performance with steady income potential.

Our full analysis on Marathon Petroleum stock

After a rigorous review of Marathon Petroleum’s most recent financial results, as well as an in-depth analysis of its price trajectory over the past three years, our proprietary methodology has amalgamated fundamental, technical, and sector data in conjunction with peer benchmarking and market sentiment. Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) stands as a pivotal player in the energy and refining landscape, with signals emerging that the market may be undervaluing both its near-term resilience and long-term transition capabilities. So, why might Marathon Petroleum stock once again become a strategic entry point into the US energy sector as 2025 approaches?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Marathon Petroleum’s current share price stands at $159.92, having experienced a modest intraday gain of 0.83%. Over the past week, the stock has risen by 2.05%, reflecting renewed investor confidence following a period of subdued performance. While the stock remains down 7.27% year-on-year, it has staged an impressive YTD rally of 14.64%, comfortably outperforming several integrated energy peers and the S&P 500 Energy sector index during this period. The 52-week range between $115.10 and $183.31 illustrates both the volatility and the upside potential inherent in the name.

The first quarter of 2025 did see a temporary setback with a net loss of $74 million, primarily attributed to extended maintenance cycles across major refineries. Crucially, however, these results were ahead of consensus forecasts, highlighting the quality of execution even in less-than-ideal operating conditions. Notably, distributions from MPLX—collected at a record $619 million, up 12.5%—offered a strong offset, demonstrating the company’s evolving revenue mix and robust midstream synergies.

The sectoral context remains generally constructive: sustained demand for refined products, an ongoing margin upcycle for complex refiners, resilience in US fuel consumption trends, and a generally advantageous macro backdrop with moderating input cost pressures. The approaching summer driving season and structurally tight distillate markets may offer further leverage for refinery operators, with Marathon’s scale placing it among the best positioned to capture incremental earnings growth.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, Marathon Petroleum displays several elements that suggest the foundation for a renewed bullish phase may be forming:

• RSI (14-day): Currently oscillating in the 44–50.6 territory, the stock resides comfortably in neutral territory, signalling that the equity is neither overbought nor oversold and potentially primed for a momentum shift.
• MACD: The slight positive MACD at 0.18 indicates an emerging, albeit tentative, bullish bias.
• Moving averages: Marathon Petroleum is approaching the $161.13 short-term moving average resistance—a clear breakout above this level could catalyse additional buying activity. The 200-day moving average continues to register a technical ‘buy’ signal, highlighting the favourable longer-term structure.
• Support: Robust technical support sits firmly in the $135.78–$138.33 band, forming a buffer likely to mitigate further downside, and offering an attractive reference for risk-managed entries.

Recent volume action suggests measured accumulation, supporting the view that a breakout, should it occur above primary resistance, could be both swift and significant. Given the current technical confluence, the risk/reward appears to skew to the upside in the short to medium term.

Fundamental Analysis

From a fundamental perspective, Marathon Petroleum’s financials reflect enduring operational scale and robust cash flow generation. For Q1 2025, revenue came in at $31.9 billion—a minor decrease of 3.4% year-on-year due to scheduled outages more than to loss of market share or demand. Importantly, the core midstream business remains a consistent profit centre, with distributions from MPLX structured to cover both the substantial dividend ($3.64 per annum; 2.28% yield) and over $1.25 billion in strategic investments.

• Valuation: With a trailing P/E of 22.03, Marathon trades at a notable discount to the average for global integrated refiners and diversified energy infrastructure peers, particularly considering its more stable earnings mix. The beta of 0.84 underlines relatively low historical volatility within the sector, which may appeal to institutional and private investors seeking defensive cyclicality.
• Profitability: Adjusted EBITDA for the latest quarter stood at $2.0 billion, underscoring a formidable capacity to generate underlying profitability even during periods of scheduled downtime.
• Strategic positioning: Vertical integration across refining, midstream, and the burgeoning renewable diesel segment positions Marathon as not merely a volume player, but one with significant operational flexibility and exposure to the energy transition.

Brand recognition remains high through both the Marathon and ARCO networks, supporting resilience in retail margins while underpinning future growth as gasoline and diesel distribution models evolve.

Volume and Liquidity

Average daily traded volume over the past three months has stabilised at approximately 2,823,424 shares. This degree of liquidity is a clear indicator of sustained institutional and retail market interest, facilitating dynamic price discovery and reducing the risk of illiquidity discounts often observed in less actively traded sector peers.

Within this context, the stock’s float and share turnover dynamics lend themselves well to tactical positioning, whether for substantial directional trades or staggered longer-term accumulation strategies. Marathon’s current market cap of $49.13 billion reinforces its place as a core, tradable large-cap within the US energy sector.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

Several notable catalysts enhance the potential for outperformance over the coming quarters:

• Growth in MPLX distributions: The 12.5% year-on-year uplift in distributions not only secures dividend coverage, but also funds capital projects without recourse to dilutive equity offerings or excessive leverage.
• Diesel renewable segment: Secular growth in renewable fuels, alongside regulatory incentives in the US and anticipated tightening in global renewable diesel supply, underpin a potent vector for earnings diversification and future-proofing.
• Operational leverage into recovery: As the impact from refinery maintenance schedules dissipates, utilisation rates are poised to rebound sharply. Historically, such turnarounds have generated notable positive earnings revisions.
• Upcoming catalysts: The scheduled Q2 2025 earnings release (expected early August) offers a clear event-driven inflection point. Absent further operational disruptions, normalised throughput should support quarter-over-quarter improvements—an outcome likely to be well received by the market.
• Market leadership: With a diversified asset base across the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast, Marathon is singularly positioned to benefit from regional spreads and arbitrage opportunities that weaker peers may not capture. This, combined with a credible ESG roadmap and transition investments, addresses both cyclical and structural drivers.

Furthermore, the company’s strong governance, over a century of operating history, and prudent financial management provide a solid foundation for navigating both energy cycles and the challenges of decarbonisation.

Investment Strategies

A range of investment strategies seem particularly well-suited to Marathon Petroleum’s current profile:

• Short-term positioning: Technically, the stock is consolidating near key support and upper moving average thresholds. A breakout above the $161–$165 resistance could trigger a short-term momentum trade with a favourable risk profile, especially in the run-up to Q2 results.
• Medium-term thesis: For investors seeking to capitalise on operational normalisation and earnings momentum post-maintenance, a medium-term holding thesis aligns well with the rebound in refinery utilisation rates and the upcoming seasonal demand uplift.
• Long-term accumulation: Marathon’s strategic expansion into renewables, ongoing return of capital via dividends and distributions, and its resilient cash flows suggest that disciplined accumulation—especially on technical dips or ahead of incremental positive catalysts—could result in attractive risk-adjusted returns.
• Ideal entry points: Technically, entries anchored near the $136–$140 support, or upon clear confirmation of a bullish reversal above $161, represent prudent tactics for portfolio constructors seeking either value or momentum orientations.

Is It the Right Time to Buy Marathon Petroleum?

The case for renewed interest in Marathon Petroleum is underpinned by several converging strengths:

• Robust technical structure and evident accumulation phase
• Attractive and defensible valuation relative to sector and earnings expectations
• High dividend yield and coverage, funded by diversified cash flows—particularly robust MPLX distributions
• Seasoned management team navigating both cyclical volatility and the energy transition with agility
• Structural leadership in US refining, integrated midstream, and renewable energy investments
• Clear event-driven catalysts (notably the upcoming Q2 results and possible positive revisions), with market sentiment poised to reward operational normalisation and delivery on growth vectors

The stock currently appears to represent an excellent opportunity for both tactical traders and patient long-term investors, with structural fundamentals and a strengthening technical posture justifying renewed optimism. While recognising inherent sector volatilities, Marathon Petroleum’s combination of scale, cash generation, and forward-thinking strategic investments may signal the start of a new bullish phase for the stock.

For investors in the Irish market seeking quality international exposure to the energy sector—balanced between yield, growth, and thematic transition—Marathon Petroleum distinctly deserves to sit on the radar as a compelling opportunity ideally aligned for the evolving cycles of 2025 and beyond.

How to buy Marathon Petroleum stock in Ireland?

Buying shares of Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) is simple, secure, and accessible online for investors in Ireland thanks to regulated brokers. You have two main options: classic spot (cash) buying, where you directly own real MPC shares, or trading via Contracts for Difference (CFDs), which allows you to speculate on price movements with leverage. Both methods can be completed in just a few clicks after opening and funding your account with a trusted broker. For details on how to select the right platform, see our broker comparison further down the page.

Spot buying

A cash purchase of Marathon Petroleum stock means buying real shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange, held in your account with a regulated broker. This method makes you a direct shareholder, entitled to dividends and voting rights. For Irish residents trading US shares, your broker typically charges a fixed commission per order—in the range of €4–€6 (or roughly $5–$6, depending on rates and broker).

Concrete example

If the Marathon Petroleum share price is $159.92, with $1,000 (about €920), you can buy approximately 6 shares (since 6 × $159.92 = $959.52), including a brokerage fee of around $5.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 10%, your shares are now worth $1,100.
Result: +$100 gross gain, or +10% on your investment (excluding currency conversion effects or taxes).

Trading via CFD

Contract for Difference (CFD) trading lets you speculate on Marathon Petroleum’s share price, without physically owning the shares. Instead, you contract with your broker to exchange the difference in price from entry to exit. CFDs offer leverage—amplifying both gains and losses. Fees include the bid-ask spread (the slight difference between buy and sell prices) and overnight financing if you hold positions more than a day.

Example

Suppose you deposit $1,000 and use 5x leverage to open a CFD on Marathon Petroleum. This means you control a position of $5,000 worth of shares.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the stock rises by 8%, your position gains 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s +$400 on your $1,000 stake—before spreads and overnight fees.

Final advice

Before investing, it’s crucial to compare brokers’ fees, trading conditions, and available features—these vary widely and can affect your returns. Whether you choose to buy Marathon Petroleum shares outright or trade via CFDs depends on your investment style and objectives. You’ll find a clear broker comparison further down the page to help you decide which approach is best suited to you.

Our 7 tips for buying Marathon Petroleum stock

The latest news about Marathon Petroleum

Marathon Petroleum shares climbed 2.05% over the past week, continuing strong year-to-date momentum. This positive movement brings the stock to $159.92, supported by a robust 14.64% price advance since the beginning of 2025. Such sustained strength may attract institutional investors and portfolio managers in Ireland looking for energy sector exposure with stable growth characteristics and high liquidity.

The company reported Q1 2025 results that exceeded analyst expectations despite a temporary net loss due to major refinery maintenance. Marathon Petroleum posted revenues of $31.9 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $2.0 billion, with the net loss largely attributed to strategic maintenance shutdowns. These results, while showing a headline loss, were received positively by the market and underpin confidence in management's operational discipline, which can be reassuring for Irish investors focused on fundamentals.

Distributions from MPLX, Marathon’s midstream affiliate, rose 12.5% year-over-year in Q1, further strengthening the company’s dividend profile. Marathon received $619 million from MPLX, enough to cover both shareholder dividends and significant investment requirements. This upward trend in midstream cash flows enhances the company’s ability to deliver reliable income to shareholders, a factor of explicit value for investors in Ireland seeking consistent dividend payers in the energy sector.

Technical indicators remain supportive, with a neutral-to-positive short-term outlook and a long-term buy signal from key moving averages. The RSI oscillates between 44 and 50.60, indicating no overbought condition, while the MACD, at 0.18, gives a slight positive bias. Importantly, the 200-day moving average maintains a buy signal, suggesting the potential for further upside, which may appeal to portfolio managers employing trend-following strategies or seeking technically solid US stocks for Irish clients.

Market consensus among major analysts remains moderately optimistic, with average 12-month price targets above current levels and a consensus “Buy” rating. Targets are clustered around $165.10–$175.29, with some analysts projecting up to $207.90 in a bullish scenario. With the next earnings report scheduled for early August, positive sentiment is likely to persist, especially as Marathon’s leadership in refining, its strategic push into renewable diesel, and resilient US energy infrastructure all resonate well with Irish investors looking for quality, diversification, and innovation in the global energy space.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.