Should I buy Cleveland-Cliffs stock in 2025?

What is Cleveland-Cliffs?

How much is the Cleveland-Cliffs stock?

The price of Cleveland-Cliffs stock is falling this week. As of today, the share trades at $5.90 USD, marking a 0.67% drop over the last 24 hours and a significant 8.95% decline on the week. The company’s current market capitalization stands at $2.92 billion, with a 3-month average daily volume of 23.72 million shares. There is no price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio due to recent losses, and no dividend yield is offered at present, while the stock shows high volatility with a beta of 2.04. Investors should note that with such pronounced price swings, Cleveland-Cliffs may present both heightened risk and potential opportunity for active market participants.

Our full analysis on the Cleveland-Cliffs stock

After reviewing Cleveland-Cliffs’ most recent financial release alongside the stock’s trajectory over the past three years, we have applied our rigorous, multifaceted analysis—drawing on financial data, technical signals, competitive positioning, and sector momentum through our proprietary evaluation algorithms. In an environment defined by cyclical volatility and shifting demand fundamentals, Cleveland-Cliffs emerges as a pivotal case within the North American metals and materials space. So, why might Cleveland-Cliffs represent a strategic entry point for investors seeking exposure to the steel sector in 2025, particularly as it hovers near long-term support levels?

Recent Performance and Market Context

Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) has undergone a pronounced correction, closing at $5.90 per share on 30 May 2025, which reflects a one-year decline of nearly 65%. Over the past six months, the slide has been even sharper at –52.61%, paralleling soft demand in key end markets such as automotive, alongside macro headwinds affecting the global steel industry. The past week alone saw a further 8.95% decline, highlighting heightened volatility and the stock’s high beta (2.04), which positions it as a levered play on sector reversals.

Despite these setbacks, several factors now point toward an inflection point:

• Temporary Plant Suspensions: While short-term suspensions of certain facilities in response to market conditions have dented recent results, such proactive capacity management sets the stage for a more efficient ramp-up when demand normalises.
• Policy Dynamics: With tariffs on steel and aluminium reinstated by the US administration, domestic producers such as Cleveland-Cliffs are poised to benefit from a more level playing field compared to foreign competitors.
• Industry M&A: Sector headlines, including the US Steel-Nippon deal, have reshaped competitive dynamics, but Cleveland-Cliffs’ vertically integrated, North American centric model remains a clear structural advantage.

From a sectoral view, the anticipated recovery in automotive demand in H2 2025, bolstered by resilient US economic data and robust infrastructure spending, suggests the steel cycle may be in the early stages of a new uptrend—a context in which CLF’s operational leverage could mean outsized gains.

Technical Analysis

Technical metrics are converging to indicate that Cleveland-Cliffs may be poised for a reversal from deeply oversold conditions—a scenario that has historically offered compelling risk/reward for contrarian positioning.

• RSI (14-day): Currently at 28.81, the stock is in clear oversold territory. Historically, rebounds from these levels have been sharp.
• MACD (12,26,9): At –0.49, the MACD is signalling nascent bullish divergence, traditionally preceding mean-reversion rallies.
• Moving Averages: The shares are well below all major moving averages (20d: $7.42; 50d: $7.80; 100d: $9.08; 200d: $10.61), confirming that CLF trades at a substantial discount to medium-term trend levels. While the trend has been negative, such disconnects often precede technical bottoming patterns.
• Key Support/Resistance: The price is resting just above the 52-week low ($5.77), with resistance at $6.51–$6.65. A successful base-building above current support could set the stage for a swift rally toward these resistance thresholds.

The alignment of deep oversold oscillators and proximity to major support levels supports the thesis that CLF may be entering a phase of technical recovery, drawing interest from traders seeking asymmetric upside.

Fundamental Analysis

On the fundamentals, Cleveland-Cliffs’ 2024 was undeniably challenging, with annual revenues at $18.61bn overshadowed by a net loss of $1.18bn and negative EPS (–$2.43). Short-term pain, however, is increasingly offset by the clarity and strength of the company’s core positioning:

• Revenue Baseline and Recovery Potential: Despite the cyclical setback, revenue stability at high absolute levels reflects the essential nature of CLF’s end markets. With automotive shipments forecast to accelerate in the second half of 2025, consensus expects EBITDA to return to $250–500m per annum, a dramatic reversal from recent quarterly losses.
• Defensible Business Model: Cleveland-Cliffs is the largest producer of flat-rolled steel and iron ore pellets in North America and maintains full vertical integration from mining to end-product. This model not only provides superior margin capture when pricing improves but also a strategic buffer against external supply shocks.
• Innovation and Market Share: The firm is a leader in high-strength steel for the automotive sector—positioning it optimally as US vehicle production rebounds and clean energy/electric vehicle value chains expand.
• Relative Valuation: While CLF’s P/E is not meaningful due to negative earnings, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is now at a compelling discount versus historical and peer averages, reflecting excessive pessimism rather than fundamental impairment. Consensus analyst targets imply ~35% upside from current levels.

Despite short-term losses and analyst downgrades, CLF ranks as one of the most robust and adaptable operators in its space, with the business model and asset base to recover quickly as sectoral winds turn.

Volume and Liquidity

Turnover in CLF shares remains robust, with an average daily volume of 23.7 million shares (65-day average) and a public float of nearly 485 million shares, sustaining deep liquidity on the NYSE. Such sustained interest—even amidst price weakness—signals ongoing market confidence and facilitates institutional repositioning at scale. For Irish and European investors, such liquidity further ensures efficient entry and exit, minimising friction and price impact.

The current combination of high float, consistent volume, and reduced valuation creates fertile conditions for market re-rating as fundamental news flow improves.

Catalysts and Positive Outlook

The coming quarters harbour a range of potential positive catalysts:

• Automotive Recovery: As the US automotive sector emerges from a cyclical trough, CLF is uniquely positioned owing to its dominant supplier status and advanced product mix for vehicle OEMs.
• EBITDA Rebound: Company guidance targets $250–500m annualised run-rate EBITDA by H2 2025, contingent on auto demand and normalising costs—a scenario that is not fully priced in at current levels.
• Policy Tailwinds: The re-implementation of tariffs and a renewed US focus on domestic re-industrialisation substantially limit downside for legacy steel producers, especially those with local supply chains.
• Operational Optimisation: The recent plant suspensions and restructuring initiatives are designed to sharpen cost discipline and enhance margins as soon as volumes recover.
• ESG and Innovation: With a leading position in sustainable, high-strength steel for the EV supply chain, CLF is aligned with the next wave of secular growth drivers.

Additionally, analysts’ consensus price target ($7.50 median, $7.97 consensus) suggests a meaningful appreciation potential—well above current levels—should execution risks be contained and end-market recovery materialise.

Investment Strategies

For investors weighing entry timing, Cleveland-Cliffs offers several attractive scenarios:

• Short-Term Entry: Deeply oversold technicals, significant support at ~$5.77, and improved sentiment amid positive sector news create a favourable setup for swing traders looking for an accelerated move back toward resistance at $6.50+.
• Medium-Term Positioning: For those seeking exposure to US infrastructure and industrial recovery, the current depressed price enables accumulation ahead of likely margin expansion and EBITDA inflection in H2 2025. Technical bottoming and upcoming quarterly updates present catalysts for re-rating.
• Long-Term Outlook: Structural advantages—including vertical integration, strong automotive relationships, and resilience through commodity cycles—underscore Cleveland-Cliffs’ ability to generate value even in challenging backdrops. Investors with extended horizons are positioned to benefit as the company executes on operational optimisation and sector leadership over the next up-cycle.

In all cases, the proximity to multi-year technical lows and the disconnect between current sentiment and long-term fundamentals suggest that positioning may be especially attractive at present, whether aiming for a tactical rebound or a core holding.

Is it the Right Time to Buy Cleveland-Cliffs?

Cleveland-Cliffs stands at a pivotal junction: sentiment and price have rarely been more depressed, yet the ingredients for resurgence—a cyclical upswing in demand, optimal positioning within domestic supply chains, a track record of operational adaptability, and substantial technical support—are assembling with increasing clarity. The bullish convergence of oversold technicals, robust volume, and leverage to both policy-driven and organic recovery signals that renewed investor interest appears fundamentally justified.

As the US steel cycle transitions from a period of adjustment to renewed growth, Cleveland-Cliffs seems positioned to benefit disproportionately, leveraging its vertical integration, innovation edge, and capacity flexibility. While risk remains intrinsic to the materials sector, the alignment of technical, fundamental, and macro factors today may argue strongly for renewed, considered allocation—especially for those seeking cyclical upside within a liquid and strategically vital sector.

For investors in Ireland and broader Europe seeking differentiated exposure beyond the technology mainstays, Cleveland-Cliffs represents a quintessential “recovery value” opportunity at scale—one that merits serious consideration as part of a diversified, forward-looking equities portfolio. The coming quarters promise catalyst-rich terrain, and for those who value structural resilience paired with rebound potential, Cleveland-Cliffs may now offer an excellent entry point at a time of maximum pessimism and emerging optimism.

How to buy Cleveland-Cliffs stock in Ireland?

Buying Cleveland-Cliffs stock online is straightforward and secure when you use a regulated broker based in Ireland or the EU. Investors have two main approaches: spot (cash) buying, where you own the shares outright, or trading via CFDs (Contracts for Difference), which lets you speculate on price movements with leverage. Each method offers unique advantages and risks. A careful comparison of brokers and their conditions is essential—see the detailed broker comparison further down the page to help you make the right choice.

Spot buying

A spot or cash purchase means you acquire real Cleveland-Cliffs shares, becoming a partial owner of the company. This method is popular with investors who want direct exposure and the potential for long-term growth. Typical costs include a fixed commission per trade, generally ranging from €3 to €10 (often charged in euro or USD, depending on the broker).

Example

If the Cleveland-Cliffs share price is $5.90 and you invest $1,000 (about €920), you can buy around 168 shares, including an estimated brokerage fee of $5.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the share price rises by 10%, your investment grows to $1,100.
Result: This means a gross gain of $100, or +10% on your initial stake.

Trading via CFD

CFD trading allows you to speculate on Cleveland-Cliffs’ price movements without owning the physical shares. CFDs are flexible and let you use leverage—meaning you can control a larger position with a smaller upfront amount. Main fees include the spread (difference between buy/sell prices) and overnight financing charges if you hold positions for multiple days.

Example

You open a CFD position on Cleveland-Cliffs with a $1,000 stake and 5x leverage, giving you market exposure of $5,000.
✔️ Gain scenario:
If the stock price goes up by 8%, your position records a gain of 8% × 5 = 40%.
Result: That’s a $400 gain on your $1,000 invested (before fees).

Final advice

Before investing, it’s crucial to compare each broker’s fees, platform features, and regulatory protections, as conditions can vary significantly. Ultimately, your choice between spot buying and CFD trading should reflect your investment goals, time horizon, and risk appetite. To help you decide, check out our detailed broker comparison tool further down this page. Remember, every investment carries risk, so educate yourself and choose the method best suited to your strategy.

Our 7 tips for buying Cleveland-Cliffs stock

The latest news about Cleveland-Cliffs

Technical indicators point to a potentially attractive entry opportunity, with Cleveland-Cliffs in deep oversold territory. The stock’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 28.81, a level considered to indicate strong oversold conditions and often viewed as a potential signal for a tactical rebound. Additionally, the MACD is negative but trending towards a buy signal. These technical oscillators contrast with bearish medium- and long-term moving averages, suggesting that while the prevailing trend remains downward, patient investors may find a favourable risk/reward profile for a short-term bounce. Such signals are especially relevant for Irish-based market participants seeking tactical opportunities in volatile international equities.

Cleveland-Cliffs anticipates a significant EBITDA rebound in H2 2025 driven by recovery in automotive demand. Despite a difficult 2024, with annual revenues of $18.61 billion but a net loss of $1.18 billion, management expects to deliver between $250–500 million in annual EBITDA from mid-2025 onwards, riding on normalization in the auto sector. Since many Irish industrial investors track the health of US automotive and steel supply chains, this outlook marks a constructive milestone. The vertically integrated model and specialist knowhow in high-strength automotive steel position Cleveland-Cliffs to benefit from sector recovery, a view also cited by several industry analysts covering transatlantic materials flows.

Recent analyst downgrades have dampened sentiment, but the consensus target price remains well above current levels. Jefferies has downgraded Cleveland-Cliffs from “Buy” to “Hold,” while GLJ Research assigned a “Sell” rating. However, the median analyst target price remains at $7.50, roughly 27% above the current share price, implying scope for recovery if expected business catalysts materialize. For institutional investors and pension managers in Ireland—whose mandates frequently require objective assessment of valuation versus market sentiment—these diverging signals highlight both caution and a clear potential for upside if performance stabilizes.

US steel tariffs and industrial policy shifts could strengthen Cleveland-Cliffs’ competitive position in international trade. Recent actions by the US administration to reinforce tariffs on steel and aluminium imports are designed to protect domestic producers such as Cleveland-Cliffs. Although primarily focused on the North American market, these measures impact global steel flows, including key EU and Irish import/export channels, potentially altering sourcing costs for Irish construction and manufacturing sectors. Irish industrial investors and corporate treasurers should be aware that sustained US protectionism could benefit Cliffs’ revenue certainty and support mid- to long-term profitability.

Cleveland-Cliffs continues to demonstrate strength through its vertically integrated operations and market leadership in North American steel. While the company’s near-term financials remain pressured, its structural advantages—including proprietary iron ore mining, internal logistics, and a dominant presence in finished flat steel for critical sectors—provide resilience against cyclical downturns. Irish market stakeholders monitoring materials and construction supply chains may find strategic comfort in Cleveland-Cliffs’ ability to weather industry volatility and position for recovery as macroeconomic conditions evolve, underpinning a constructive outlook when combined with imminent catalytic developments.

FAQ

P. Laurore

Finance expert

Co-founder of HelloSafe and holder of a Master's degree in finance, Pauline has recognised expertise in personal finance, which she uses to help users better understand and optimise their financial choices. At HelloSafe, Pauline plays a key role in designing clear, educational content on savings, investments and personal finance. Passionate about financial education, Pauline strives, with every piece of content she oversees, to provide reliable, transparent and unbiased information for independent and informed financial management. To this end, she has tested over 100 trading platforms to help internet users make the right choices.